Welcome to the playoffs everyone!
The Icecaps, Thunder, Squatches, GWW, Sandstorms, and HSG will all be competing for the 2024 Books Boss League Title! Who will bring it home in early January?
There was no drama this week in the matchups, as the Sandstorms took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers- I mean, the Misfits on the way to clinching a playoff berth. They will look to win back-to-back Titles for the first time ever.
“League winners. Big performance from Keenan Allen today.” GWW got the last laugh in the regular season taking down the Squatches to move to 8-6 on the year, but we will see who is still competing in week 16, you know why?
“Everyone’s tough when they up.”
On to the recaps!
Thunder clinches the bye, take down HSG 150-120
The Thunder wrapped up the bye with a convincing win despite starting quarterbacks Bryce Young (15) and Mac Jones (5). With 20+ point performances from Nacua, Jennings and Robinson, the Thunder capped off an impressive five week stretch with five straight wins to earn the #2 seed. A relaxing weekend of football is on tap.
Just a couple weeks ago we talked about this team competing for a championship. Each week since looks a little more unlikely. Seven starters scored less than 13 points as Jalen Hurts (29) couldn’t carry the team. No worries, the final #6 playoff spot awaits. Anything can happen.
GWW earns #4 seed, beat Squatches 119-99
Well, this team did it. They somehow made the playoffs while scoring the second fewest points in the entire league and is the four seed no less! If anyone wants to thank the yahoo schedulers, it’s Galen. No fan of a league median, this team is not deserving of a playoff spot under any points metrics. Six starters scored less than 11 points, which tells you all you need to know about his opponent. An intriguing matchup with the Sandstorms is ahead.
“First parts easy.” Yeah, about that. 99 points. With a shot at a first-round bye, this team scored… 99 points. We should have known after Jayden Reed put up zero points to kick off the week on Thursday. Maybe he can get together with Amari Cooper and run some cardio! Seven starters scored single digits including league winner Keenan Allen (4), as it was a horrible showing from the #3 seed in the playoffs. The good news? Lamar Jackson is back from bye. Jackson alone can carry this team, the question becomes, how far?
Icecaps clearly the favorite, destroy Avalanche 212-148
The Icecaps are clearly the favorite to win it all and it’s not even close. Four starters scored over 30 points including Burrow, Darnold, Chase and Charbonnet. The bad news for the rest of the league is that Derrick Henry was on bye! Through 14 weeks, the Icecaps averaged an incredible 158 points per week, a new league record! The only thing this team needs to be considered the most dominant team of all time is a banner. Considering this roster, if this team doesn’t win a championship, it would be quite embarrassing.
It was a valiant effort for the Avalanche who were fighting for their playoff hopes. Unfortunately, they ran into the championship favorite Icecaps. The 6-8 campaign puts them at #8 in the standings and gives them a week off from competing. If this team chooses to get angry, they can get angry at the league schedulers as this squad sported a 9-5 record against the league median (if we had one). That would have helped this team clinch a playoff spot. The consolation matchups will resume in week 16.
Sandstorms clinch playoffs, take down Misfits 136-104
Needing a win and getting it done, the Sandstorms locked up the fifth seed in the playoffs. Waiver wire darling Isaac Guerendo (26), was well worth the $70 FAB bid to help the Sandstorms get a win, but maybe not for the playoffs. Battling a foot sprain, we will have to see if Guerendo plays this Thursday. An exciting matchup awaits with GWW.
Adamant about starting half a roster of Buccaneers players, the Misfits were the only team officially eliminated heading into this past week. But hey, the 104 points would have beaten the Squatches. A chance to win the consolation bracket is ahead in week 16.
Piranhas wins over Prairie Dawgs 193-134
It was too late for the Piranhas, who saved two massive performances for the last two weeks of the year. The third highest scoring team in the league will miss the playoffs. On the surface, that sounds bad but even with a league median, this team would have missed the playoffs. A chance to win the consolation bracket is more than likely.
This team just could not overcome the injuries they sustained throughout the year. It was a harsh welcome back to the league for returning manager Nick Martin, but being as active as he was on the waiver wire was certainly good to see. A chance to win the consolation bracket is well… a chance.
Final League Standings (with points)
- Jack, 10-4. 2217
- Book, 9-5. 1940
- Ezra, 8-6. 1777
- Galen, 8-6. 1750
- Logan, 7-7. 1960
- Tim, 7-7. 1929
- Jordan, 6-8. 1956
- Erk, 6-8. 1804
- Nick, 5-9. 1760
- Ben, 4-10. 1661
What if we had a league median
Jack, 11-3
Erk, 9-5
Logan, 8-6
Book, 8-6
Ezra, 8-6
Tim, 7-7
Jordan, 6-8
Nick, 6-8
Galen, 5-9
Ben, 2-12
Hypothetical combined records with median
- Jack, 21-7
- Book, 17-11
- Ezra, 16-12
- Logan, 15-13
- Erk, 15-13
- Tim, 14-14
- Galen, 13-15
- Jordan, 12-16
- Nick, 11-17
- Ben, 6-22
Final Power Rankings
- Jack, 187
- Jordan, 161
- Logan, 160
- Tim, 157
- Book, 153
- Ezra, 148
- Galen, 144
- Erk, 142
- Nick, 140
- Ben, 126
What does all of this mean?
Okay, even at first glance, I am not sure how to interpret all of these conflicting results. Let’s start with the league median. In the simplest way to put it, the median represents an amount of suggested wins on the season. Most of the median records reflect the actual records except for Erk and Galen. Erk played a much tougher schedule and if all was fair, should have nine wins on the season instead of six. Galen, on the other hand, had one of the easier league schedules because of a predicted five wins, he turned that into eight wins. Some may say that’s just good managing, but is it good managing when you have the second fewest points scored in the entire league?
Power Rankings
Okay how about the power rankings? For the first time ever a team that is ranked second overall in the rankings will miss the postseason. We can’t really fault the median for Jordan as the median and actual record are the same, suggesting Jordan got the amount of wins he should have had. So, where is the second ranked team in the power rankings coming from?
Remember, the power rankings take into account mainly points scored and produce an estimated output of what to expect from each team on a given week. Get ready for this sentence, of all the teams lowest weekly scores from this season, Jordan had the highest at 109. Jordan’s highest weekly score this season (193) was the second highest in the league. The rankings favor teams that consistently score a lot of points and have less low-scoring weeks, which contributes to the final power rating of 161.
Take the Thunder for instance, their highest score of the season was 161 while their lowest was 64 (lowest in the league). Those scores negatively affected the final power rating factoring in the terrible weekly score of 64. For those that care, if the Thunder had even just scored 99 points that week, their final power rating would have been second overall at 162. This further demonstrates the value of consistently scoring high values for the rating, which explains Jordan’s final score.
A little History
If you are still with me, the Icecaps (Jack) finished the season as the number one ranked team in the power rankings for the second straight season. I started doing these rankings back in 2018 and teams that have finished number one in the power rankings at the end of the regular season have gone on to win it all 50% of the time. That percentage has gone down in recent years as through the first four seasons, teams that finished first won the league three times, while the past two seasons, the team that has finished first has not won it all. What will happen in year 7?
Week 15 Playoff Preview
#1 Icecaps – Bye
#2 Thunder – Bye
#3 Squatches vs. #6 HSG
#4 GWW vs. #5 Sandstorms
Conclusion
It is finally time. IT’S THE PLAYOFFS! But one final question remains…
Should we add a league median?
Cheers!
Books Boss League 